Draw Breath

Well, so much has been written on Irish blogs about last week's election, with (amongst some dross) more excellent analyses than I could name here, marvellous titles and downright bitterness. And then there was the spectacular logistical and technical achievements of the Irish Election blog and Politics.ie (noticed across the Atlantic too).

Anyway, I really didn't have a huge emotional investment on the election: I wasn't particularly supporting any team, though the team I supported second-least won (more on the team I supported least below). I'm not convinced that a FG-Labour victory would have made an enormous difference to the country, even if I'm with Simon McGarr in thinking that 17 years out of 20 is more than enough for any political party, even if they are Ireland's version of Congress. And, despite what I said before, I do sometimes wonder what would happen if someone leaked photos of Bertie eating a puppy with one hand and personally poisoning our water with the other: Taoiseach for life, I'd say.

So, I'm neither pleased nor displeased in party disposition terms. That said, I do think that the history of the 29^th Dáil can tell us some highly discouraging things about the one we're about to have.

Here's an exercise for you: putting aside your viewpoint on their particular merits, think about the (sort of) landmark initiatives that the Oireachtas enacted since 2002. What can you think of? Here's my list:

• the Criminal Justice Act 2006 (though how landmark it is is open to question),
• the Garda Reserve,
• the Central Bank and Financial Services Authority of Ireland Act 2003,
• the centralisation of the country's arcane health system and the establishment of the Health Service Executive under the 2004 Health Act,
• the Disability Act 2005,
• the smoking ban and finally
• the decentralisation programme.

I can't think of anything else. The National Development Plan was enacted in 2000, so bulldozing ancient sites doesn't count. I know a list like this will inevitably be bizarre, but correct me if you think I've left anything out.

Two things strike me about this list though: first is the strange fact that a lot of the initiatives came from the Department of Health and Children, which had hitherto been an almost entirely fire-fighting department. The second is the number of Acts that were either initiated or brought through by the Progressive Democrats. The Central Bank and Financial Services Authority of Ireland Act and the Smoking Ban were largely Fíanna Fáil affairs, and the health service reforms were also kicked off by Mícheal Martin (who was simply a good health minister). Decentralisation was drowned at FF's parish pump.

Every other action I can think of was down to the PDs.

I don't think I'm being too mean in saying that everyone else had, um, a pretty responsive approach to government.

And this brings me to one conclusion about governance in Ireland. FF under Bertie is no longer a party of action. I'm not making a particularly bold statement in saying that the party lacks any ideological drivers, but I think it's a bit more than that. I think, like Bertie, the party is a bit lazy. Hence the sleaze for one thing: people are morally lazy.

But they're legislatively lazy too: there is very little appetite for making full use of government, even on the occasions when there some sense of what government might be used to do.

As a result, the ideologues get to run large parts of the show. For the PDs this was great news. McDowell obviously enjoyed being Justice Minister (a post designed for loons no matter who's in power). And I think that Harney was, even if I regard some of the reforms to be objectionable, continuing very important work in trying reconstruct the health service almost entirely, despite significant resistance.

Given this, what beckons for the next Dáil? If it's a FF+PD+independents, my guess would be: not much. The PDs are decimated and will be lucky to get one ministry. And even if they do, they'll be facing a FF behemoth that is electorally fat and happy. The independents will be satisfied with the odd filled pothole, interpretive centre and hospital. So what are they going to do after they abolish stamp duty (I'm waiting with baited breath on that one)? What will happen then?

I suspect we'll have a period of quiet government, waiting for the crises to come their way. Think Dubya without 9/11.

Of course, that might be better than some of these people having ideas.