September, 2008

Spreading Risk or Cashing In?

Was it just me who was turned off by the following sentence about developer Donal Caulfield in Frank McDonald and Kathy Sheridan's obituary for the Irish housing market:

He has tried to spread his risk, with developments in Poland, the Canaries, London, Madrid and Ibiza.

Spreading risk by buying up property in a series of bubble housing markets? You spread risk by diversifying a portfolio, not by tyring to cash in on every property bubble going. Language appropriate to describe investment ought not to be used to dignify speculation.

Anyway, I know I've said that a dig out for banks is inevitable - or at least I think it is - because Irish banks, and everyone on this island as a consequence, will be in a whole load of bother as banking losses mount, but lets hope that the dig out doesn't either shore up developers or speculative property owners. There is more than one group interested in the politics of housing and, as this guy points out also in yesterday's Irish Times, there's no reason for privileging the interests of owners over aspiring owners (or indeed over taxpayers).

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Half-House Assets

Cross-posted from the Irish Left Review, perhaps to be read in the light of this not entirely surprising news from P. O'Neill on Irish Election.

"If you owe us £1,000, it’s your problem; if you owe us £1 million, it’s our problem" was how Justice Moriarty described the AIB's attitude towards lending when he was chairing the tribunal investigating Charlie Haughey's adventures with AIB.

How right he was. While we read the good news about the American government's using vast amounts of Chinese money to rescue the global capitalist system from total collapse, we shouldn't think that takes us all out of the path of disaster.

The Irish are bound to go the same way in 2009 that Spain is going at the moment. Like us, the Spanish have been enjoying an enormous property boom for the last few years. And, as in Ireland, it has just come stuttering to a halt, prompting a massive rescue from the Spanish government as the sector struggles "with high debt, plunging prices and an overhang of unsold houses and flats."

This is where Ireland is headed, but we're probably going to experience something much worse.

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Want to be Frightened?

Then read this.

Socialism for the rich...

...would have been far preferable to taking the risk that the financial system would unravel entirely.

The Bush administration, sticking to its ideologue's guns, gets it dangerously wrong again.

Update: Ah: they were just saving up. Don't underestimate how catastrophic AIG's collapse would have been: not only do they insure most of the US's loans but they also have own most of America's commercial aircraft and have their fingers in many many pies. I think the state had to essentially nationalise the company not just in order to shore up the whole American (and global) economy but to shore up the financialised market system itself. Though it is worth pointing out that, approve of it or not, this sort of action puts to bed any talk of an adjustment: state intervention happens, as any student of regulation will say, when markets fail.

The Professionals

Thanks to Pete Baker for synopsising the results of the research (pdf) on the motivations of no voters in the Lisbon referendum. If the research is sound, it seems that 42% of no voters and 48% of abstentions were motivated by a feeling of ignorance about the treaty. Now, this has motivated some bizarre commentary on Slugger, with some twat arguing that the complexity of the treaty was itself a plot by 'the EU' to baboozle voters into a yes vote (a wonderful mix of paranoia and Irish narcisism there).

Now, I'm exposing myself to accusations sour grapes, since I advocated a yes vote, butI would have thought that voting no or abstaining because the treaty is too complex is not somehow a vote against complex law or something (consolidated laws, which is what Lisbon largely is, tend to be very very complex). Are the electorate really sending a message that law should be simpler?

Voting no or abstaining because of ignorance is voting against being asked (at least in the one-off referendum). So we should either stop asking and leave it to the professionals or should ask in a very different way. 

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High Wire

I suppose there's going to be a lot of crowing about how Gordon Brown's failure to get energy companies to pony up £1bn worth of fuel vouchers for the least well-off. Certainly Brown has some serious problems with his, um, capacity to persuade (things are bad when I agree with classics-my-arse Clarke).

But on this occasion I'm not so sure that his failings are all that bad a thing. The government has an opportunity now to really think about a long-term energy policy. And I think that taxes can do some of the heavy lifting for consumers here. Instead of taxing on profit, we should tax energy companies based on how energy efficient or inefficient their customers are so that companies would have a huge incentive to focus on their customers' energy efficiency.

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Golden Gate

Golden Gate

Update

Well it's been a long time since posting, partly because I took a long time to upgrade the site to the new version of Drupal. That's more or less done now. I've also installed Mollom, a system that only presents a captcha for comments if it suspects spam. And finally I've entirely rewritten the photoblog module. It's perfect except for one small thing: no photos. Ah well: I'll figure it out...

In the meanwhile, a Summer of writing and conferences is coming to an end and an Autumn of teaching beckons. So today's task is to write up a few module outlines.

And in the world at large?

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