Draw Breath

There’s a bit of a debate over on Slugger on the news that 10% of the Irish population is now made up of non-Irish nationals. Keeping in mind that percentage changes can look more dramatic than realities on the ground (viz figures for Luxembourg), the differences with the last census are amazing. I’ve collated from the current census and the 2002 document (both pdf) to come up with the table below. The evidence tells us what I suppose we thought we knew anyway: although the number of people from the old EU15 and third countries are up, the new EU members are the primary source of immigration.

The table is far from perfect since there were very few figures for the 2004 accession states (never mind Romania and Bulgaria) in 2002.

Anyway, here it is in pdf form and here it is as a picture (click for clarity):

Oh, and the commenters on Slugger who think that there must be more Poles really ought to tell us how they know.

I see that Maria Farrell has posted some depressing news on the Irish economy over on Crooked Timber. It seems that 2006 final quarter net exports fell 10% year on year, with housing stalling too.¹ Even though I’m a person who, to coin Nick Cohen’s phrase, has forecast ten out of the last three recessions, I suspect Maria’s spot on. An economy reliant on equity-lead consumer demand is in very deep shit indeed.

How deep is a difficult question though. And this question matters very much for Belfast too.

On the down side, there is absolutely no doubt that Dublin’s property market is a pretty fragile bubble. Rents are well below the costs of servicing mortgages. So investors have been keeping property on the basis of the increases in year-on-year equity. Once those increases stall, then its hard to justify the costs for investors to keep property. And if they all jump ship at once (as it would be individually rational to do) we’re screwed.

Anyway, if you’re not happy with speculation, just consider a market where the banks offload their properties.

On the up side, the economy is relatively diversified. That is, it’s fed by a range of American industries. And this ought to keep going for the next while given our low corporate tax rate (yes: the one Sinn Féin want to increase). Unless the American economy goes belly up (not impossible if shocks translate into downturns), the amount of money coming into the economy ought to continue more or less as is.

My guess is that we’re in for tough times but not to a total return to the bad old days.

The issue matters very much for Belfast partly because the latest Agreement is being bankrolled from Dublin but more because Belfast and Newry’s housing markets were driven by surplus equity from the south throughout last year. About a 3rd of demand came up the M1 I read somewhere (sorry: I’ve forgotten the source). Hence the doubling of property prices.

My guess is that that ain’t going to continue: there is very little in the way of surplus equity in the south and NI doesn’t have immigration and other drivers for property in the way that Dublin does.

Nevertheless, one thing is certain. All those people who think that property is a sure-fired short term bet for profits are in for a difficult period.

And for all of us who, you know, want to buy houses for the niche purpose of living in them, well…

¹ I think these figures are drawn from page 2 of this report (pdf) but can’t for the life of me get them to tally with the Irish Times’s figures. Mine say that the merchandise + services balance for 2006 fell by 28% of the 2005 level. My sums are here (pdf). So that can’t be right. There must be something fishy about my maths. Anyone with more skills than me out there?

Incredible photos of the Grand Canyon Skywalk on the Guardian site. It is set to become the largest attraction in the area and has been built by the Hualapi tribe to generate much-needed income.

I have been going through the cupboard this evening to see if I can free up some badly needed hanger space. Outfits that have long since passed the “have I worn it in the last 2 years and if not chuck it out” rule are staring me in the face but, for many, I can’t think of parting with them.

One example is a rather trendy check suit in the Burberry mode inherited from my sister who, in turn, rescued it from a sale of unclaimed items in a dry-cleaners in London. I had a rather surreal experience wearing it a couple of Summers ago. I was sitting on a bench outside my previous place of work at lunch time when an old lady sat down beside me. It was coming up to 2 pm and after a few pleasantries she said “Is it not time you went back in love?”. “No”, I said. “They are pretty flexible in there. You can take lunch whenever you like”. “That’s great for you” she said rather incredulously. Shortly afterwards I hoisted myself up to re-enter the building and said goodbye to her. “Goodbye love. Good luck in the exams!”. Since being mistaken for a lying, school-going teenager at aged 30, I have not been able to wear the suit in public. Yet!

I’m still trying to catch up on the weekend’s newspapers and have come across the Guardian’s challenge to contemporary writers to follow in Hemingway’s footsteps by composing a six-word short story.

Hemingway’s is a stunning piece:

“For sale: baby shoes, never worn.”

Phenomenal.

The commissioned writers seem to me to fall into two camps. Some try to follow Hemingway explicitly and produce something in the vein of a short-story: a postcard snapshot of a life moving on. Hence Patrick Neate’s

“The pillow smelled like my brother.”

Others try, with less effect to my mind, to fit a whole story into the six words. The worst sinner on this is Alexander McCall Smith. Sadly this is also the route taken by John Banville:

“Set sail, great storm, all lost.”

Anyway, you can see the other ones over on the Guardian’s site.

One other thing that strikes me is that the most effective of these are the ones that convey some sense of despondency either through perceived loss or forbeboding. I suppose that, as with Hemingway’s original, horrible things get our emotional attention in quick order.

And finally: I wouldn’t be a proper blogger without having a go myself. So, keeping all the above in mind (and following Helen Fielding’s contraction cheat)…

He lay empty. It’s over now.

So, all the reports go, the DUP is looking for a six-week breather before heading into an executive with Sinn Féin. United Irelander is understandably unsure as to what's going on, whereas the commenters over on Slugger O'Toole are generally impressed with the DUP's machinations, but not entirely clear on why the machinations are happening in the first place. Well, my guess is that it's a stop gap, simply a method for avoiding a split right now or they're preparing the fanbase for joint-government or, as some commenters here point out, they want to save face. It's possible, however, that as we get closer to the Summer other issues will arise. Then the six week break will take on a different hue. I wonder if the DUP will end up (inadvertently?) using the break to bring things close enough to the marching season to try and extract some progress for Unionism then. After all, Paisley being First Minister and no march down the Garvaghy Road would be very hard for him to either swallow or explain. If this is going to be what's up his sleeve then we're in for some serious disruption to governance in Northern Ireland since someone, presumably in No. 10, would have to override the Parades Commission's most likely ruling. And that kick in the face for the rule of law would both undermine the bits of pieces of dialogue that are going on between the Orange Order and local communities across the region and embolden extremists on both sides of the community. It's still most likely that there's little in the way of strategic nous in the six week move, but if there is then I'd bet this was it. And what a high price that would be for us all in Northern Ireland to pay. Update: Now that I read over this I think I'm talking rubbish. I doubt very much that there's a conspiracy afoot (and have adjusted the above to reflect that). Still, the stability of the executive over the marching season will be difficult to maintain. As will the neutrality of the Parades Commission in a DUP-led Northern Ireland. Unless the DUP decide that the Marching Commission makes for a convenient whipping boy and a good way of avoiding political confrontation over marching. I must write a coherent post on this…

There’s a great article on torture from Slavoj Zizek in the New York Times. He argues that we all are the victims of the routinisation of torture. Corruption comes in many ways and “we are in the middle of a process of moral corruption: those in power are literally trying to break a part of our ethical backbone, to dampen and undo what is arguably our civilization’s greatest achievement, the growth of our spontaneous moral sensitivity.”

Welcome to the desert of the real.

Well, lots of people have mentioned it, including Twenty Major himself, and I certainly have nothing to add (except that this solves my what-do-you-buy-children-and-elderly-relatives-for-Christmas issues), but I think Gerry puts it best.

The afternoon today was spent at the British Library Roadshow at which they demonstrated their rather brilliant Turning the Pages project and software. This technology has been used to create virtual books online by photographing each page of an old book and dropping the jpgs into an online book template.

The Roadshow was held at the Guinness Hopstore and participants were treated to a tour of the premises afterwards. The tour is informative and fun and culminates at the viewing area at the top of the building.

A few items of information on Guinness follow based on what I heard today:

Arthur Guinness inherited £100 from his godfather, a clergyman who dabbled in brewing. He used this money to set himself up in Leixlip before locating to a four acre site at St James’s Gate (on which an earlier brewing operation existed).

Ale – Porter – Stout corresponds to Strong – Stronger – Strongest.

There are 5 breweries for Guinness in the world. The second biggest after Ireland is in Nigeria. Nigerian Guinness is a much stronger beast apparently.

I’ve been exploring Youtube, mainly for Clancy Brother tunes but came across this Planxty gem. Perm-tastic! And as for Christy on the piano: recede-abulos!

That said, I’ve always thought that the two songs bookending The Woman I Loved So Well were Planxty at their best.

The last song, Little Musgrave, is a variation on a 17^th Century folk song called Matty Groves. There’s something wonderful about the very old songs giving as they do tiny snapshots of sensibilities long passed. Also: The Rocks of Bawn with its aspirations for joining up, and the distinctly pro-Napoleon Isle of Saint Helena (I can’t find lyrics, but it’s on this album).

Anyway, I’m wandering. Here’s all ten minutes of an older and less hirsute Planxty’s Little Musgrave: